Think Clearly
How do I stop fooling myself?
Five steps from how a belief gets settled to how sure you should be: see what you actually observed, name rival explanations, test the one that could be wrong, and put a number on your confidence.
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Peirce on the Fixation of Belief Liberal Arts & Reasoning
Peirce's four ways of settling a belief show why only one, the method of science, lets something outside your own opinion push back, so it is the only one that can correct itself.
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Observe, Define, Represent: The First Three Moves Liberal Arts & Reasoning
Most arguments go wrong before they start: separate what you saw from what you concluded, say exactly what your words mean, and draw the problem in a form that shows its structure.
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Hypotheses, Predictions and Tests Liberal Arts & Reasoning
Now generate several explanations instead of one, write down what each predicts, and commit to the prediction before you look at the result.
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The Elenchus Logic & Proof · interactive
Turn the method on a belief of your own: the Academy's cross-examination makes you state it so it could be wrong, weigh its grounds and face the strongest objection.
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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Probability, Causation and Forecasting Liberal Arts & Reasoning
Outside mathematics almost nothing is proved, so finish with the tools for the middle ground: rough probabilities, base rates and forecasts you can score.